As West Sends More Armor to Ukraine, Why “Turning the Tide” is still Fantasy

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Update on the conflict in Ukraine for January 16, 2023.

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– Russian forces are consolidating control over and around Soledar to the north of Bakhmut;

– Russian forces are also apparently preparing a much larger encirclement of Bakhmut itself;

– The United Kingdom, in addition to sending 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks has claimed it is sending 30 AS90 155mm self-propelled howitzers;

– The AS90 is lightly armored and vulnerable to a variety of Russian weapon systems including growing numbers of Lancet loitering munitions;

– The AS90 has a different engine and transmission than the M109s being sent by the US and other NATO members meaning yet another supply chain for spare parts must be created to sustain them on the battlefield;

– The UK only has 117 AS90s meaning London is sending up to 25% of their inventory to Ukraine;

– Claims that the UK is also sending AH-64 Apache attack helicopters appear to be false; – Apache helicopters would face almost insurmountable logistical, training, and operational challenges in Ukraine;

– Russian military industrial output, even according to low-end estimates by anti-Russian sources indicate that Russia holds a dominant position regarding attrition warfare.

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