The End of the Post-World War Two Rules-Based Liberal International Order
Fox News Host Tucker Carlson warning that a US war with the Sino-Russian alliance could lead to the destruction of the West on his February 20, 2023 episode
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Conflicting US-Russian Narratives Justifying War in Ukraine
During his speech to the Russian Federation Council on the eve of Russia’s much anticipated massive winter offensive, which most military analysts are predicting will occur by February 24th, which is the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the West for starting the war in Ukraine (presumably by arming Ukraine and forming a strategic partnership with it, making it a de facto NATO member) and stated that he was compelled to send Russian military forces into Ukraine early last year to try to put an end to it. Putin stated in his speech this morning that he ordered Russian troops to invade Ukraine in response to continuing U.S. and NATO attempts to revise the international order that was agreed to at Yalta in which the Western powers granted Russia a sphere of influence not merely over the former Soviet Union but over the eastern half of Europe as well.
President Joe Biden responded to Putin’s speech by giving a speech in Warsaw earlier today declaring that the U.S. and its NATO allies were fighting a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine in defense of global democracy while administration officials continue to declare that the US must fight its proxy war in Ukraine against Russia in defense of the rules-based liberal international order which was established at the end of the Second World War. Thus, the war in Ukraine has become a war of conflicting narratives. Biden’s decision to give his speech in Poland is significant given that, other than Ukraine, the Polish government has been the most enthusiastic about the prospects of fighting a direct war with Russia and the fact that it is the only country in the world that has sent combat troops to fight Russia in Ukraine reportedly losing 1,200 KIA as of November 2022. During his speech, he committed to continue supporting Ukraine to fight NATO’s proxy war against Russia in perpetuity unnecessarily prolonging the deaths and destruction in Ukraine with no achievable ends aside from weakening Russia militarily over a period of many years.
During Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv yesterday, the Ukrainian government falsely claimed Putin had placed the Russian nuclear triad on its highest alert status during Biden visit to justify their decision to blast their air raid sirens as soon as Biden arrived for his scripted photo op session with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He has previously urged the U.S. to conduct a pre-emptive attack to attempt to destroy Russia’s nuclear arsenal, even though the U.S. no longer has sufficient nuclear warheads to successfully conduct a nuclear first strike which is very disturbing given that Biden has essentially placed Ukraine’s autocratic leader in charge with America’s Russia policy. Zelensky has been quite open about his desire to embroil the US and its NATO allies in a Third World War with Russia in the belief that is his only hope for Ukraine to regain its lost territories from Russia.
President Joe Biden meeting with President Zelensky and his wife in front of Ukraine’s presidential palace yesterday
From the U.S. perspective, Russia committed an unprovoked act of international aggression when it invaded Ukraine a year ago this week while from the Russian perspective, its invasion of Ukraine was a preventative war that was both limited and inherently defensive aimed at rolling back Ukraine’s de facto NATO membership and restore the pre-February 2014 Maidan coup Ukrainian status quo with Ukraine becoming once again a neutral buffer state between Russia and NATO. The principal aim of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine is to roll back America’s attempt to revise the Yalta-agreed international order by extending NATO over 1,100 miles farther eastward than its Cold War boundaries, potentially allowing US nuclear bombers to be based within a mere 300 miles of the Russian capital of Moscow.
Russian Ukraine War Justification More Factual
While Western pundits are loathe to admit it, the Russian narrative about the origins of the war in Ukraine may be closer to the truth than our own. This is because the international order established at the end of World War II was one of opposing US and Russian spheres of influence in which the accepted rules were that neither side would seek to interfere militarily in the other side’s sphere of influence. By attempting to expand NATO deep into the former Soviet Union and into Ukraine in particular, in violation of well-documented verbal assurances given to the Soviet Union to get them to agree to German reunification in 1990 that “NATO would not expand one inch eastward,” the US has violated the rules-based order which was agreed to at the end of the Second World War. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, U.S. Presidents from Clinton to Biden have felt themselves at liberty to unilaterally alter the international rules or perhaps more accurately to make exceptions to them as they see fit in order to engage in unprovoked military aggressions in the former Yugoslavia in 1999, in Iraq in 2003, in Libya in 2011 and in Syria in 2012.
Indeed, the spread of democracy throughout the world via a policy of oftentimes violent regime change in the former Soviet Union and the Middle East and the advancement of the liberal international order have largely been euphemisms for the spread of America’s liberal hegemony throughout the world since the Bush Doctrine was first announced in 2002. Biden’s claim that the war in Ukraine is about defending democracy is reminiscent of the rationale that former President George W. Bush used to justify his invasion of Iraq in 2003 starting a war that killed up to a million people in the Middle East. In response to the dangerously provocative grand strategy of liberal hegemony, Russia and China have engaged in a no-limits military alliance against the U.S. and its western allies and there is increasing evidence that China views the undeclared U.S.-led war against Russia in Ukraine as a proxy war against China as well given Russia is its most powerful international ally. Accordingly, China has been supporting Russia behind the scenes both economically and now increasingly militarily as well.
Biden Puts Ukraine First, America Last
Former Trump National Security Advisor and longtime neoconservative Robert O Brien was interviewed on Fox News this morning stating that he applauded Biden and gave him high marks for his Ukraine policy calling his black check of U.S. military support for Ukraine “the ultimate America First Foreign Policy” without giving any rationale for such an absurd claim. His assertion stands in stark contrast to most other Republican leaders including former President Donald Trump, Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Fox News Host Tucker Carlson and even fellow neocons like Fox News talk show host Sean Hannity and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) who have all condemned Biden’s policy as a “Ukraine First, America Last” foreign policy. Republicans have largely united in their criticism of the optics of Biden going on a trip to Kyiv to pledge continued US subsidizing of Ukrainian government salaries, pensions and deficit spending while denying federal assistance to working class American victims of one of the biggest environmental disasters in recent US history. Biden’s refusal of Ohio Governor Mike Dewine’s request for the administration to declare a state of emergency and approve federal assistance to the residents of East Palestine, Ohio who have been suffering from chemical poisoning stemming from Biden’s decision to stage a controlled detonation of hazardous chemicals from the train derailment a few weeks ago combined with his sending of over $113 billion in aid to Ukraine in less than a year is the penultimate America Last foreign policy.
Putin Announcement of Russian Suspension of the New START Treaty Increases Danger of Nuclear Armageddon.
Perhaps the biggest announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin during his speech was his declaration that Russia was suspending its adherence to the New START Treaty which limits both the US and Russia to 1,550 treaty-accountable warheads. He also announced that he had signed a decree putting new Yars road-mobile ICBMs on combat duty. Putin’s announcement of Russia’s withdrawal from New START Treaty allowing it to break out of the Treaty limitations is alarming as it means for the first time since the SALT I Treaty was signed in 1972, neither Russia’s or China’s nuclear arsenal will be limited in size and scope in any way. Both the neoconservatives and liberal internationalists have long viewed the New START Treaty as the cornerstone of security for the US against Russian nuclear attack and now their prized security cornerstone has been repudiated by the Kremlin in response to Biden’s undeclared war against Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin giving a speech addressing the Russian Federation Council this morning
On October 6th, President Biden admitted that the US was closer to nuclear Armageddon then it has ever been since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. For over a year now I have been warning that Biden has been sleepwalking the US and our NATO allies into a potential nuclear World War Three with what I have denounced as a policy of national suicide fighting an undeclared war against Russia in Ukraine. The RAND Corporation recently issued a very revealing report regarding the increasing dangers of Russian nuclear escalation and extension of the war to a direct war between Russia and NATO the longer the Biden administration opts to prolong the war in Ukraine with increased military aid to Ukraine and continued refusal to negotiate a negotiated compromise settlement with Putin ending the war.
The Biden administration’s Ukraine war policy is both morally and strategically bankrupt given the fact that it seeks to prolong the war in Ukraine indefinitely at a rising cost in Ukrainian lives, 150,000 thus far by some estimates including over 125,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed in action, with no achievable objectives other than to weaken Russia militarily and no reasonable chance of victory. Biden’s decision to prolong the war unnecessarily and reject all of Russia’s many peace offers from February 2022 to the present using Ukrainian soldiers and civilians as cannon fodder in his proxy war against Russia has created a humanitarian disaster and threatens to transform Ukraine into a failed state. His decision to do so is reminiscent of U.S. leaders essentially telling Americans over half a century ago that we had to destroy Vietnam “in order to save it.”
Since 1988, I have been warning of the dangers of strategic nuclear reduction treaties in potentially creating a massive imbalance in the US and Russian nuclear arsenals which could enable Russia to use nuclear blackmail against us to force us into a conditional surrender or else wipe the U.S. off the world map as we did to Germany after World War Two and now it seems my warnings have come true. Unfortunately, since then the US has unilaterally disarmed the size of its nuclear arsenal by 94 percent overall while reducing the size of its strategic nuclear arsenal by 84 percent down to 1,715 operational warheads while Russia has reduced the size of its nuclear arsenal by a much smaller amount down to 8,000 total operational warheads.
In 2003, as President of the Center for the National Security Interest, I attempted to recruit other think tanks to join me in a Coalition to Protect Our Nuclear Deterrent to urge the US Senate to vote against ratification of Bush’s SORT Treaty which reduced the size of the US strategic nuclear arsenal from 7,000 to only 1,700-2,200 warheads but sadly few other national security experts were interested in joining us and the treaty was approved. In 2010, as Senator-Elect Mike Lee’s National Security Policy Director I wrote an article in the Deseret News calling for the Senate to defeat Obama’s New START Treaty but sadly that treaty was approved as well.
While several national security pundits have dismissed Putin’s announcement as fear-mongering the fact remains that Russia’s formal suspension of the New START Treaty will allow it to immediately surge the size of its operationally deployed strategic nuclear arsenal in violation of this last remaining arms control agreement. In fact, given that inspections have been suspended for over a year now Russia may have already begun doing so. There is no way for to detect such a Russian nuclear breakout from New START even if U.S. inspections, which have been suspended since 2000, were ongoing.
Neoconservatives and liberal internationalists have been foolish to believe that the New START Treaty has made the U.S. more safe and secure giving that the Russians have been violating it virtually from the time it has been signed. Their belief that U.S. membership in NATO has made America more safe and secure is equally foolish given that our international alliances have put us at greater risk and danger of stumbling into a nuclear/EMP war which we cannot win and likely would not survive. Our alliances with front line states bordering on Russia, China and North Korea, in particular, serve as nuclear tripwires designed to ensure we could not avoid the next world war which will be fought with unconventional weapons not conventional weapons as neoconservative warmongers have deluded themselves into believing. Rather, it is our strategic nuclear arsenal which is the cornerstone of our security and unfortunately it is becoming increasing obsolescent and in desperate need of modernization.
While Russia has likely been breaking out of the New START Treaty for years, the fact they are now doing so blatantly constitutes a major escalation and according to the neocons themselves US national security is now greatly imperiled by Russians public abrogated of the Treaty. Dr. Mark Schneider, who has long been America’s foremost expert on Russia’s nuclear arsenal believes that Russia is in the process of surging the size of its nuclear arsenal from as few as 2,000 deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 3,300. However, according to an expansive 2016 report on Russia’s military modernization, Russia engaged in a massive nuclear missile buildup which was due to be completed in February 2022, the same month it invaded Ukraine, which likely is not a coincidence given that it is Russia’s nuclear superiority over the U.S. that has given it the confidence to risk war with the U.S. The Russian nuclear arsenal they projected, which Russia appears to have achieved, can carry a total of 7,500 strategic nuclear warheads including 6,700 nuclear warheads on Russia’s intercontinental ballistic missiles since each Russian ICBM and SLBM have the capability of carrying about three times more warheads than the number of warheads which they the Russian government has formally declared they carry.
Meanwhile, China is currently in the process of surging the size of its nuclear arsenal to over 4,200 deployed strategic nuclear warheads. The U.S. by comparison only has 1,515 operationally deployed strategic warheads. Once China’s massive nuclear buildup has been completed late next year, this will give the Sino-Russian alliance nuclear supremacy over us for the first time in history with between 5-7.5 times more deployed strategic nuclear warheads, potentially allowing them to blackmail or destroy the U.S. in a nuclear first strike. Russia’s comprehensive national missile defense system of over 10,000 advanced ABM’s, mostly consisting of S-400 and S-500 SAM/ABMs will protect them from a US nuclear response while China is reportedly in the process of surging the size of its national missile defense system to include thousands of ABM interceptors like Russia’s.
The Sino-Russian Alliance Determined to Replace U.S.-led International Order
While Biden is meeting with Polish leaders in Warsaw, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s top foreign policy advisor, Wang Yi is meeting with Putin in Moscow. The most likely purpose of this visit is to discuss Russia’s impending massive winter offensive and offer more Chinese military assistance to help Russia defeat the U.S. and NATO in their proxy war in Ukraine thus cementing their no limits alliance. China has already provided Russia with thousands of drones to help it target and destroy Ukrainian military forces. During a Fox News interview, former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien stated earlier today that he believes China has already been providing lethal military aid to the Wagner group which has provided a significant number of troops to help Russia win its war against Ukraine. Zelensky has warned that if China gave lethal military assistance to Russia, it would lead to World War Three ignoring the fact that massive US and European military assistance to Ukraine has massive increased the likelihood of a nuclear war between NATO and Russia as the tweet by radio talk show host Buck Sexton points out.
President Xi Jinping is reportedly preparing to visit Moscow in the next few months for a summit with Russian President Putin in which he will likely coordinate Russia’s and China’s future offensive plans against the US and its allies if Biden continues to refuse to consider peace with Russia. Moscow’s suspension of New START along with China’s reported plan to supply lethal military aid to Russia to help it win the war in Ukraine signal the beginning of a new world order in which the US is not only no longer dominant but is overmatched militarily in virtually every key area of national military power. The demise of the US-led international order is likely to be one of the most lasting legacies of Biden’s war in Ukraine. China boasts the world’s largest economy with an industrial manufacturing base approximately twice as larger as the U.S. with the largest army, navy, coast guard and nuclear-capable missile force. Meanwhile, thanks to America’s unilateral nuclear disarmament over the past few decades, Russia enjoys escalation dominance over the U.S. at every rung of the escalation spiral from offensive cyber weapons, super-Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) weapons the US does not possess, tactical nuclear weapons (with 25 times more than we have) and strategic nuclear weapons where they have at least twice as many as we do.
The Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in June 2001. Russian president Vladimir Putin has since described it as “a reborn Second Warsaw Pact.” Russia and China now lead a military alliance that includes over seventy percent of the landmass of Eurasia, over 42 percent of the world’s population, over thirty percent of the world’s GDP, and over eighty percent of the world’s operational nuclear weapons, the vast majority of which are Russian-controlled. The stark and frightening reality that the Biden administration seemingly refuses to face as it continues to escalate our proxy war against Russia in Ukraine is that, in the event of a direct shooting war with the U.S., Russia or China could utilize super-EMP weapons to transform the U.S. from the world’s third-ranking nuclear superpower to a third world failed state within minutes without warning and without us even knowing who attacked us.
Biden Must Act Now to Implement Critical Steps to Secure America against Nuclear/EMP Attack
The importance of the U.S. implementing my recommendations to redeploy our 2,000 partially dismantled strategic nuclear warheads to active service, deploy a comprehensive national missile defense system consisting of 5,000 Anti-Ballistic Missiles (ABMs) and hardening the US electrical power grid against EMP attack has never been greater. However, given the fact that it will take 6-24 months to do so. Biden should also send a message of strength by acting immediately to increase our nuclear alert level to DEFCON 3 to deter potential Russian nuclear escalation until the current threat of a Third World Wars has abated. Most importantly, the Biden administration should negotiate an immediate cease-fire with Russia in Ukraine to end the war, allow Ukraine to consolidate its battlefield gains before the Russian winter offensive begins later this week and end the immediate threat of the outbreak of a Third World War with Russia that could end in America’s destruction.
My Recent Media Interviews:
Interview on “World’s Apart” hosted by Oksana Boyko on February 15th
Interviews on The American Journal hosted by Harrison Smith on February 16th
“Nuclear War Expert Gives Full Strategic Breakdown of Ukraine War”
“How the Chinese Spy Balloons Mapped a Path Over all our Most Sensitive Nuclear Sites”
“What the US Must do to Stop Provoking World War III with Russia and China” Presentation Given at Food Storage Depot in South Jordan, Utah on January 28th
Here are a few of my never previously published interviews which our readers may find of interest:
“Nuclear War Expert—This Is More Dangerous Than The Cuban Missile Crisis” on The American Journal Interview on March 4, 2022
“World War III Facing Russia and China Together” on Greg Allison podcast on October 28, 2021
“Hitler in World War Two” on American Warrior Radio on December 15, 2019
This interview explores the origins of World War Two and how a just, negotiated peace after World War One could have avoided the rise of Hitler and the outbreak of World War Two entirely. I also address the ‘what ifs’ as to how history would have been different had the British accepted one of Hitler’s peace offers, had Hitler accepted Chamberlain’s offer for a Second Four Power Conference in 1939, had the German resistance overthrew Hitler in 1944 or if Dewey had won the 1944 presidential election and the US had accepted one of Japan’s surrender offers outlined in the MacArthur Memorandum in January 1945.
Upcoming Media Appearances:
March 7th—I will speak to the Citizens for Constitutional Government in St. George, UT. (location TBD) My presentation is entitled, “How the U.S. Must Stop Provoking World War Three with Russia and China.”
April 6-8th–I will also be speaking twice at the Firm Foundation Expo being held at the Mountain America Expo Center (MAEC) 9575 S. State Street in Sandy, Utah. I will provide the exact speaking times as soon as they are finalized and will be sure to update all subscribers of “The Real War.”
© David T. Pyne 2023
David T. Pyne, Esq. is a former U.S. Army combat arms and Headquarters staff officer, who was in charge of armaments cooperation with the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas from 2000-2003, with an M.A. in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. He currently serves as Deputy Director of National Operations for the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and is a contributor to Dr. Peter Pry’s book “Blackout Warfare.” He also serves as the Editor of “The Real War” newsletter at dpyne.substack.com and as a contributor to “The National Interest”. Here is a link to his interview archive. He may be reached at [email protected].
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