Ukraine’s Possible Bakhmut Counteroffensive + What Poland’s Military Build-Up Means

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Update on conflict in Ukraine for March 13, 2023;

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  • Bakhmut continues to be encircled by Russian forces;
  • The Western media is reporting conflicting claims by Ukraine and Russia regarding steep losses inflicted on opposing sides;
  • The West claims Ukraine is inflicting huge losses on Russian forces and that Bakhmut has little strategic value;
  • The Western media, however, also admits Ukraine is outgunned between 3:1 to 4:1 in terms of artillery and despite claims that Russia has lost 20,000-30,000 troops around Bakhmut alone, the BBC’s own project verifying Russian losses says as of March 2023 Russia’s 1 year total losses stand at 16,000;
  • A counteroffensive by Ukraine may lead to temporary gains, just as in Aleppo, Syria in 2016, however the fundamentals leading to Bakhmut’s encirclement have not been addressed, therefore any gains risk being reversed;
  • A Ukrainian counteroffensive on any major scale will divert troops meant for Kiev’s spring offensive, diminishing the combat potential of other upcoming offensives;
  • Poland’s military build-up is being hyped by the Western media, however Polish ambitions would see the creation of a military force roughly the size of Ukraine’s military at the beginning of 2022;
  • Poland’s build-up will take years to complete;
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