West Surges Ammunition Ahead of Ukraine’s All-Or-Nothing Offensive

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Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for March 23, 2023:

  • Russian forces continue encircling the fortified cities of Bakhmut and now Avdeevka, two major points along Ukraine’s defense line in the Donbass;
  • Ukraine is gearing up for its upcoming offensive, carrying out drone strikes on Crimea and reconnaissance by force along the line of contact in Zaporozhye;
  • the stated goal of Ukraine according to Western reports is to cut the land-bridge between Crimea and the rest of Russia, though that would hardly isolate Crimea entirely;
  • Ukraine would suffer immense losses, just as they did during the Kharkov /Kherson offensives last year, with the addition of many more Russian troops and extensive defensive works created months in advance;
  • The US and EU are surging remaining stockpiles of artillery ammunition to Ukraine ahead of the offensive to sustain 2-4 months of intense fighting. Once depleted it will take years for the West to restore these stockpiles;
  • Russian shell production appears to have exceeded Western output as early as 2014-2015 and has continuously increased since meaning Russia’s ability to regenerate combat power exceeds the West’s at this moment;
  • Ukraine’s upcoming offensive should not be underestimated nor the prospects of a breakthrough, Russian forces have repeatedly demonstrated a preference for withdrawing over being encircled or suffering heavy casualties as part of its attrition strategy;
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