Ukraine’s Offensive at 1 Month – Losing the War of Attrition

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 3, 2023:

• Ukraine’s offensive reaches the 1 month mark and has made relatively little progress beyond the security zones ahead of Russia’s main defenses;
• This is mainly owed to Russian mine fields and Ukraine’s inability to clear them while under fire;
• Ukraine’s artillery shell supply is limited, the longer the offensive takes, the less ammunition Ukraine will have to support and exploit any breakthroughs that do occur;
• Mounting Ukrainian losses mean that any achievements made during the offensive will be difficult to consolidate no matter where on the map the offensive ends;
• Unable to breach Russian defenses, Ukraine and its NATO sponsors appear to be exploring “alternative” options to change battlefield dynamics including continued attempts to accuse Russia of planning to destroy the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant;

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